AssumeSmart
Planning for reality
Better decisions begin with better assumptions.
Capital and life are uncertain, but some things can be measured to better understand what may be possible in the years ahead.
We examine planning probabilities and possibilities using thoughtful, forward-looking assumptions informed by research from the world’s largest money managers and credible government agencies.
This provides a more informed understanding of the choices ahead, helping identify the best use of capital to strengthen financial security and support greater freedom for what matters most.
Leading money managers expect large-company U.S. stocks to return about four percentage points less over the next decade than their long-term historical average.
Look forward, not backward
Historical returns tell us what happened. Planning requires an expectation of what may happen next.
AssumeSmart uses forward-looking capital market assumptions, inflation, longevity, healthcare costs, and other financial inputs to create a more realistic foundation for long-term decisions. We observe correlations and weight now more.
It is not a prediction of the future. It is a framework for understanding probabilities and possibilities—and for making better decisions when the future cannot be known with certainty.
Better assumptions lead to better decisions
Our goal is not to make a financial plan look better. It is to use realistic assumptions to create a clearer picture of what may be possible—and make better decisions about what comes next.
Source: Ibbotson® SBBI® Stocks, Bonds, and Inflation, 1926-2025; GPCM January 2026 composite: median geometric ten- to twenty-year capital market assumptions from published top-twenty asset managers ranked by assets under management; ADV Ratings; IPE; Morningstar; Grosse Point Capital Management. Historical and forward-looking benchmarks vary. For informational purposes.